A Worldwide Quantitative Analysis of the COVID-19 Pandemic
With the devastating impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had, it is tempting to place the blame entirely on Trump. There are certainly legitimate criticisms on the handling of the pandemic, such as downplaying the disease and the effectiveness of masks, as well as refusal to use the Defense Production Act to distribute ventilators and personal protective equipment. However, it is important to consider how much of the pandemic was truly avoidable, and this is best revealed with a comparison to other countries around the world.
It is well known that the US is ranked #1 in COVID-19 cases, with a whopping 13.5 million cases to date. The more meaningful statistic is cases per 1M population, as more populated countries would be expected to have more cases. In this ranking, the US is #12 with 40,000 cases per 1M, behind Bahrain, Qatar, Belgium, Czechia, and Armenia which are in the range of 40,000-50,000 cases per 1M. It remains close to the top, which is still not surprising considering that an adequate pandemic response demands unified public action, public trust, and readily accessible healthcare, all of which the US is abysmally lacking in. The US is a capitalist society that is highly individualistic, the only major developed country to not provide universal healthcare, and extremely divided in comparison to the rest of the world. Furthermore, Dr. Fauci, the leading public health expert on COVID-19, lied to the public about the efficacy of masks and later admitted that this was done in order to preserve PPE, a move that while potentially beneficial in the short-term was extremely damaging to public trust.
Bahrain (50,000 cases/1M), Qatar (49,000 cases/1M), and Kuwait (33,000 cases/1M) have large international migrant populations, comprising 55%, over 80%, and 70% of the population respectively. This is a population that is at greater risk of infection due to inadequate healthcare, worse economic conditions, and overcrowded living situations. Cases in Israel (36,000 cases/1M) disproportionately affected the ultra-Orthodox segment of the population, which lived in insular densely populated communities and largely did not comply with mask and social distancing guidelines.
Belgium (49,000 cases/1M) has not only a high case load but the highest COVID-19 death rate in the world (1400 deaths/1M, compared with 800 deaths/1M for US). This has been attributed in part to its divided and individualistic culture and consequent resistance to centralized government, with Dutch-speaking wealthy industrial region Flanders on one side and French-speaking regions of Wallonia and Brussels on the other. It is also a very mobile population, being a financial hub in Europe. Switzerland (37,000 cases/1M) faced similar problems as a decentralized, fiscally conservative financial hub which relaxed safety measures faster and to a greater degree than other European countries. Brazil (29,000 cases/1M) falls in this category as well, with mask-wearing politicized much like the US.
On the other end of the spectrum, the bottom of the list is populated largely by African countries: Tanzania, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Mali, Benin, South Sudan, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Togo, Sudan, Rwanda, Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Ivory Coast, Ethiopia, Zambia, Senegal, and Guinea, all of which had under 1,000 cases/1M. This may in part be due to insufficient testing, as many of these countries had less than 10,000 tests/1M. Other reasons have been proposed including quick action, public support, and good community health systems (perhaps as a result of a more communal culture and prior experience with the Ebola epidemic), as well as a younger population and a more favorable climate.
Many Asian countries also populate the bottom of the list including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and South Korea, all of which also had under 1,000 cases/1M. Japan also performed relatively well (1,000 cases/1M). Asian culture tends to have less physical contact (e.g. handshakes, hugs). Moreover, it tends to be more communal, with a high level of importance placed on the family unit which may promote more of an other-centered mentality. This may have contributed to the high rates of mask compliance, 95% in Thailand and 94% in Vietnam. There is also a greater societal acceptance of aggressive government measures such as strict quarantines and lockdowns, widespread business closures, door-to-door health checks, and punitive measures for those in violation, as was implemented in China. South Korea was less punitive but instead responded rapidly with extensive testing and contact tracing, earning acclaim as a model of exemplary COVID-19 response.
Australia (1,000 cases/1M) and New Zealand (410 cases/1M) also fared well. The obvious potential explanation is a geographical advantage, but the countries’ responses likely also played a role. Australia responded by closing its borders, severely limiting movement, testing and tracing, and emergency funding of hospitals by the government. Of note, political conflict was largely suspended in order to address the pressing conflict at hand. New Zealand implemented an early travel ban and lockdown, accompanied by widespread testing and contact tracing.
Regarding other major countries in between, France (34,000 cases/1M) and Spain (35,000 cases/1M) are not far behind the US despite a universal healthcare system. France has overcrowded centers for migrant workers and lax immigration policy that settles 400,000 immigrants per year. Spain also has a large migrant worker community with poor living conditions that has suffered from outbreaks, and it has been described by the Washington Post as the most welcoming country in Europe for migrants. The UK (24,000 cases/1M) fared somewhat better, although the deputy chief medical officer resisted the idea of widespread testing. Italy (26,000 cases/1M) was one of the earliest countries to be hit, possibly attributed to trade relations with China and a large number of Chinese migrants working in the Italian textile industry, with a higher death rate due to an older population. Sweden (24,000 cases/1M) famously pursued a highly controversial strategy with a goal of herd immunity but was likely saved by its overall societal wellbeing, having a healthy population with high life expectancy and low rates of obesity and smoking, high-quality universal healthcare, and low rates of poverty and unemployment. As a result of its strategy, it greatly underperformed compared to Germany (12,000 cases/1M) and its Scandinavian neighbors Denmark (14,000 cases/1M), Norway (6,000 cases/1M), and Finland (4,000 cases/1M). The US was seemingly outdone by its neighbors Mexico (8,000 cases/1M) and Canada (10,000 cases/1M). While Canada is likely reaping the benefits from a more socialized system, Mexico is likely undertesting, as evidenced by an inflated death rate of around 10% and a testing rate less than 3 times the case rate (compared with the US whose test rate is over 10 times the case rate). Russia (15,000 cases/1M) has received overwhelmingly negative coverage riddled with paranoia regarding accuracy of statistics, which poses a challenge in drawing definitive conclusions, but the numbers as they stand suggest a positive outcome. India (7,000 cases/1M) took an aggressive approach with an early lockdown and may have had the Asian cultural advantage previously described but is plagued by overpopulation, poverty, a large migrant worker population with substandard living conditions, and a society divided along caste and religion.
It is interesting to note that the US is ranked #18 in total tests/1M, much higher than countries that fared well due to aggressive testing. The key, however, is early aggressive testing, which in the long-term decreases the total number of tests.
When taken together, the data seems to indicate that even after removing Trump from the equation, the pandemic would likely have been similarly devastating, unless one subscribes to a view of American exceptionalism, a view that America has that “special something” that would enable it to evade an act of nature that so many countries have struggled with. The most predictive factor of success seems to be a broader issue of organization of society, an idea that is simply not at the forefront of discussion in the platform of centrist Democrats due to a crippling fear of the word “socialism.” Is individualism truly the highest ideal, or should a somewhat more communal approach be taken? This is the question that society ought to be debating if we are to be prepared for future disasters.
Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, accessed 11/29/20. Given changing statistics, approximate values are given, rounded to the nearest 100 or 1,000.
Written by Ramya. Artwork by Dhanya.
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